Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

Overview. Crude oil prices rose in June for the fourth consecutive month, in part because of stronger-than-anticipated global economic activity, primarily in Asia. Market sentiment continues to reflect expectations of an economic recovery and a future rebound in oil demand that are outweighing weak current oil consumption and high inventory levels. Continued production restraint by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and unrest in Iran and Nigeria, respectively OPEC’s second- and seventh-biggest oil producers, are also supporting prices. The downside price risks of this forecast are a delayed or weaker-than-expected global economic recovery, ample global surplus production capacity, and high commercial inventories.

Consumption. The global economic downturn curtailed world oil consumption during the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. Compared with the year prior, world oil consumption was down an average of 3.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) from the fourth quarter of 2008 through the second quarter of 2009. However, the consumption decline rate is expected to moderate later this year because of comparison with a lower level of consumption last year and projected gradual global economic improvement. In particular, there has been stronger economic activity in Asia than was previously anticipated, and the current forecast reflects higher expected oil consumption in that region. As a result, a smaller decline in global oil consumption is expected in 2009, with oil consumption projected to fall by 1.6 million bbl/d compared with a decline of 1.7 million bbl/d in the June Outlook. Global consumption is projected to grow by 0.9 million bbl/d in 2010 in response to expected positive global economic growth (World Liquid Fuels Consumption Chart).

Non-OPEC Supply. Total non-OPEC supply is expected to rise by 360,000 bbl/d in 2009 and to remain fairly flat in 2010. Over the forecast period, higher output from Brazil, the United States, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan is expected to offset falling production in Mexico, the North Sea, and Russia (Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth Chart).

OPEC Supply. OPEC crude oil production is estimated to be 28.6 million bbl/d in the second quarter of 2009, down slightly from first quarter levels, but down 3.1 million bbl/d from the third quarter of 2008. OPEC crude output is expected to remain near current levels through the end of the year, then trend upward moderately in 2010 in response to higher demand. Substantial surplus production capacity, located mostly in Saudi Arabia, should help moderate upward price pressure until higher demand begins to erode the global supply cushion.

Inventories. Preliminary data indicate that commercial inventories held by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries stood at 2.7 billion barrels at the end of the first quarter of 2009. At 60 days of forward cover, OECD commercial inventories were well above average levels at the end of March (Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Stocks Chart). Preliminary estimates suggest that OECD commercial inventories held fairly steady during the second quarter of 2009, rather than rising seasonally, but still remain well above the historic average. Crude oil in floating storage, which is not included in the OECD stock totals, has reportedly declined from a high of more than 120 million barrels at the beginning of 2009 to about 80 million barrels.

Source: www.doe.gov